Classify a reaction as exothermic or endothermic based on the sign of its enthalpy change, and apply Hess's Law to combine the enthalpy changes of individual steps into an overall reaction enthalpy.
Enthalpy (H) describes the heat content of a chemical system, and deltaH (the enthalpy CHANGE of a reaction) tells you whether a reaction releases or absorbs energy overall. An exothermic reaction releases energy to its surroundings (deltaH is negative, and the surroundings feel warmer) because the products end up with less stored chemical energy than the reactants had -- combustion and most oxidation reactions are exothermic. An endothermic reaction absorbs energy from its surroundings (deltaH is positive, and the surroundings feel cooler) because the products end up with MORE stored chemical energy than the reactants had -- photosynthesis and instant cold packs are endothermic.
Breaking chemical bonds always requires energy input (an endothermic step), while forming new bonds always releases energy (an exothermic step). The overall deltaH of a reaction is essentially a balance between these two: if more energy is released forming the new bonds in the products than was required to break the bonds in the reactants, the overall reaction is exothermic, and vice versa.
Hess's Law states that if a reaction can be written as a series of individual steps, the overall enthalpy change equals the SUM of the enthalpy changes of every individual step, no matter what specific path was taken to get from reactants to products. This works because enthalpy is a state function -- it depends only on the starting and ending conditions, not on the route traveled between them, exactly like the change in your elevation on a hike depends only on where you started and ended, not on which trail you took.
Mastery looks like: They correctly classify a reaction as exothermic or endothermic from the sign of deltaH or a description of energy flow, and correctly apply Hess's Law by summing the enthalpy changes of individual steps.
Common stumbles: Assuming exothermic reactions always feel exciting or fast rather than judging by the actual direction of energy flow; adding enthalpy values with the wrong sign when combining steps.